A look at the leaked cable from 2008 highlighting the dangers around NATO expansion in Ukraine
NAT RUSH
Wikileaks - Ukrainian Danger
A leaked cable from February 2008 has recently been brought to light as its content relates directly to the worsening situation in Ukraine. This cable details how things could deteriorate in Ukraine if they were to be offered NATO membership, clearly the situation we have at present in Ukraine is not a result of NATO membership, but of a disputed EU trade agreement. Even so, the cable is an interesting gauge of how much the US et al knew about the tensions within the region.
John Pilger, in his recent article on where he sees this conflict originating from, states: “In February, the US mounted one of its proxy "colour" coups against the elected government of Ukraine.” Pilger goes on to make the point that this move unsurprisingly prompted Russia to protect its Baltic Sea Fleet which then lead to Russia being demonized in western media as a threat.
This cable was in circulation between NATO, and the Secretaries of State and Defense, to name a few. What follows are a number of excerpts from the cable:
“Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”
I deduce from this excerpt and the events surrounding the Ukrainian crisis, that the potential divisions stemming from NATO membership are more applicable to divisions in Ukrainian society over the wider issue of whether to form closer ties with ‘The West’ or Russia. In other words, strife in Ukraine was always a possibility when it came down to picking sides
"Dmitriy Trenin, Deputy Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, expressed concern that Ukraine was, in the long-term, the most potentially destabilizing factor in U.S.-Russian relations, given the level of emotion and neuralgia triggered by its quest for NATO membership.
Trenin expressed concern that elements within the Russian establishment would be encouraged to meddle, stimulating U.S. overt encouragement of opposing political forces, and leaving the U.S. and Russia in a classic confrontational posture."
These extracts indicate that any perceived influence by The US on the region would prompt Russia to react defensively. Due in part to Russia’s historic ties to the area (The Crimea itself has changed hands many times between Russia and Ukraine) and the fact that any disturbances or power struggles could leave an uncertainty around Russia’s continued military presence around the area – it is not surprising that any US backed action would lead to Russia adopting a counter-position. The afterburners of the Cold War can still be felt today, and I believe we are indeed seeing both nations engaged in ‘classic confrontational postures.’
So aside from the hauntingly accurate predictions that this cable has yielded, it is clear to see that the dangers of interceding in the area were known to those at NATO and in the appropriate offices in Washington. Pilger suggests that the uprising in Ukraine was a US orchestrated coup, if this is the case, is it an attempt to escalate old Cold War tensions?
It is understandable that Russia carries certain paranoia over US and European interests within the region. So the events of the past few months show either a complete blundering disregard for known tensions in the area; or a calculated act of aggression.
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